KARACHI, Oct 29 (Focus Pakistan) - Builders across Pakistan now pay about Rs200 more for a bag of cement than they did a year ago, and local sales look set to slip this month.
Pakistan cement dispatches will likely fall 1% year on year to 3.95 million tons in October, according to industry estimates reviewed by Focus Pakistan. The projection rests on actual figures for the first 18 days, when local sales reached 2.1 million tons. Channel checks put sales for the first 25 days at 3.05 million tons.
That second number raises a question. At the 25-day pace, roughly 122,000 tons a day, October would close nearer 3.8 million tons. To reach the estimate, mills would have to push out about 150,000 tons a day over the final six days.
Focus Pakistan checks tie part of the slowdown to cement prices. A bag cost Rs1,604 on average in October against Rs1,404 a year earlier, according to weekly Sensitive Price Indicator data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Prices also rose 2–4% from September. Higher fuel and transport costs for the increase.
For a contractor buying 1,000 bags, that difference adds Rs200,000 to a single order.
Pakistan Cement Dispatches Slow in Northern Region
The North, by far the bigger market, accounts for the projected national decline. Focus Pakistan expects local dispatches there to drop 1% from October 2025. Its sources checks pointed to political uncertainty in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the first week of the month, along with softer demand as prices climbed.
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Daily sales in the region hovered between 100,000 and 106,000 tons over the first two weeks. In the third week, they jumped to 117,000 tons. Northern dispatches look set to finish October 6% ahead of September.
The South went the other way. Daily sales there stayed between 18,000 and 20,000 tons through the first 18 days, roughly a fifth of the northern rate. The region appears on course to close the month 5% below September.
No help from abroad
Cement exports gave the industry little relief. Overseas shipments will likely slide 3% year on year and 7% month on month to 0.77 million tons.
Combined, local and export sales bring total cement dispatches to roughly 4.73 million tons for October. That figure sits 1% below last year but 2% above September.
Mills will run at about 56% of their capacity this month. Capacity utilisation stood at 57% in October 2025 and 54% in September, so more than two-fifths of the industry’s capacity will sit unused.
Four months in
The longer view looks steadier. For July to October, the brokerage expects total dispatches to rise 2% to 17.87 million tons. Domestic dispatches could climb 5% to 14.80 million tons over the same 4MFY27 period, despite October’s projected dip.
Analysts still forecast 8% growth in domestic cement demand for FY27. Focus Pakistan’s calculations, based on the four-month projections, show what that target demands. Domestic sales would need to run about 9.5% ahead of last year over the remaining eight months, nearly double the pace so far.
November will give mills their first real test. Prices remain high, and 44% of the industry’s capacity still sits idle.
