KARACHI, Oct 19 (Focus Pakistan) — Pakistan GDP grew 3.65% in the fiscal year that ended in June, its fastest pace in four years, but growth slowed to a six-quarter low in the final three months as industrial output contracted, partly reflecting a statistical base effect linked to solar power data.
The National Accounts Committee (NAC), meeting on Monday, cut its estimate for fiscal 2026 growth from the 3.70% it had approved in May. The economy grew 2.0% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, against 6.07% in the same period a year earlier.
The committee raised its estimates for the second and third quarters to 4.31% and 4.42% respectively, while trimming first-quarter growth to 3.89%. Those revisions put average growth for the first nine months at 4.21%, double the fourth-quarter pace.
Industrial output fell 4.7% in the final quarter even as manufacturing grew 3%. A 33% drop in the electricity, water and gas segment drove much of the decline.
The segment had grown 123% in the same quarter a year earlier, after adjustments to the calculation methodology to account for solar power data, according to Focus Pakistan. That left a high base for comparison. For the full year, the segment contracted 10.2%.
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Annual growth fell short of the State Bank of Pakistan’s projected range of 3.75% to 4.75%. Topline Securities said the result was in line with its own forecast.
The committee also lowered fiscal 2025 growth to 3.11% from 3.18%, after cutting agriculturalgrowth for that year to 1.32% from 1.53%. The economy grew 2.62% in fiscal 2024, according to final NAC data.
Revisions since May
The latest estimates reshuffle the sector picture the NAC presented in May. The committee now puts fiscal 2026 growth at 3.50% for agriculture, 3.34% for industry and 3.81% for services, compared with its earlier estimates of 2.89%, 3.51% and 4.09%.
In percentage-point terms, agriculture gained the most, rising 0.61 points. Services fell 0.28 points and industry 0.17 points.
The economy reached 126.4 trillion rupees, or $450.4 billion, in fiscal 2026, up from $408.7 billion a year earlier. Per capita income rose to 531,897 rupees, or $1,896.
Pakistan GDP growth: agriculture, industry and services
Agriculture grew 3.5% for the year, as important crops rose 1.59% and other crops 4.3%. In the fourth quarter, the sector grew 3.7%, against 0.58% a year earlier. Forestry jumped 15% in the quarter, while important crops gained 2.2% and other crops 2.6%.
Industry grew 3.34% for the full year. Manufacturing, which covers small-scale, large-scale and slaughtering activity, expanded 6%, while construction grew 6.3%. In the fourth quarter, small-scale manufacturing rose 9.5% and mining and quarrying 8.9%.
Services grew 3.8%, the sector’s strongest performance in four years. Information and communication led with 9.5% growth, followed by public administration and social security at 5.7%. In April-June, information and communication grew 15%, and human health and social work activities 6.1%.
The NAC also lifted transport and storage growth to 3.23% from 2.31%, citing upward revisions in railways, water transport and air transport.
Pakistan economic outlook for FY27
Topline Securities forecast economic growth of 3.5% to 4.0% for fiscal 2027. It expects agriculture to grow 4% to 4.5%, and industry and services to grow 3.5% to 4.0% each.
That range brackets fiscal 2026’s 3.65% outturn, and its midpoint sits just 0.1 percentage point above it. It also falls below the 4.42% pace the economy reached in the third quarter.
